Interesting developments in this mystery diagnosis. Did a fresh top end, new rings, piston, bearings, bored .05 over, got it all back together, still doesn't start.
Tore it all down again, took the flywheel off to check the key, crank seals are leaking slightly. Replace seals on both sides, still won't start.
On a hunch decided to swap the stator for a different one, fired up on the first kick.
So my theory is:
Had good compression, had spark, had fuel. Crank seal went bad but it still ran fine. With each stroke of the piston a little dust is brought in through the leaking seal, and a small amount of corrosive exhaust buildup is pushed out of the seal. Ran fine when I put it away, but that thin corrosive material sat on the coil all winter long, through many temperature changes. There was nothing visible to suggest serious damage, but enough to cause a bad connection or a short in the coil, still allowing some spark, but the change in resistance may have altered the timing or weakened the still visible spark.
So although it didn't absolutely need a top end or a carb rebuild, it was going to be due for one soon enough, just good maintenance to get all that out of the way now I suppose. Anyway she runs great now and I'll be on my way out to Perry State Forest (Central Ohio) early tomorrow morning to break her and and seat up those fresh rings. Thanks again everyone. I need to go apologize to my cheap compression tester, it probably wasn't as far off as I had thought.