i don't know dude, if it was just a crack or something, it might hold because it would just be holding in fluid and there'd only be slight torsional tension.
but the shift shaft? that's gonna constantly have pressure on if from shifting. and from branches and sh*t getting caught up on the shifter. plus it's right at the bottom of the case where if it did start leaking, all the tranny oil could get out of it. if it was halfway up, you wouldn't have to worry about losing ALL your oil.
so it's possible that you might not notice the leak and ride around for hours on a dry tranny/clutch.
i say, at least do the oxy weld. the best way would be install a new case half, the 2nd best would be tig (or mig if you know someone w/ the spool gun and a can of argon) and lastly would be the oxy weld. but i wouldn't do jbweld.